Genting Singapore, operator of Resorts World Sentosa, is facing mounting headwinds in its home market, with analysts citing a slowdown in the mass segment and unpredictability among VIP players.

In a note, Malaysian brokerage Affin Hwang Capital said Genting’s nine-month core profit after tax and minority interests fell 14% year-over-year to $388.67 million—below expectations and well behind Marina Bay Sands (MBS). The Las Vegas Sands-owned rival generated $435 million in EBITDA in just the third quarter, nearly a third of its parent company’s $1.28 billion total.

“The outlook for the Singapore gaming market is likely to remain challenging, due to a slower local mass market and uncertainty in the VIP segment,” Affin Hwang wrote.

MBS Expands, Genting Slows

While Genting contends with softer volumes, LVS is pressing ahead with a multi-billion-dollar expansion at MBS, including a fourth tower, 40% more suite capacity, and a new entertainment arena. On the company’s latest earnings call, executives highlighted solid mass performance and strong rolling volumes, in contrast to Genting’s weaker momentum.

Affin Hwang noted Genting was hurt by Singapore’s higher local entry levy and a normalized win rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, after an unusually high 3.7% in the prior period masked underlying weakness.

Economic Clouds Ahead

Singapore’s sluggish economy is compounding the pressure. GDP growth was just 0.1% in the third quarter, missing forecasts and stoking recession fears.

“With the challenging economic outlook both locally and regionally, the overall gaming volume is likely to remain weak for both the mass and VIP segments,” the analysts warned.

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