Football season, long a major catalyst for sportsbooks, is now fueling record activity in prediction markets.
On Sunday, Kalshi handled $260 million across 763,000 event contracts — surpassing its Election Day volume. CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour confirmed the milestone on X, noting that football remains the most bet-on sport in America, even in prediction markets.
The surge underscores how operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, once best known for political contracts, are now rivaling those volumes through NFL wagering. With only four weeks into the season, activity is expected to grow as marquee matchups approach.
Robinhood Riding the Wave
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), a Kalshi partner, saw shares jump 12.27% today to an all-time high after CEO Vlad Tenev disclosed the platform has processed more than four billion event contracts, half of them this quarter alone.
An analyst recently projected Robinhood’s yes/no derivatives business could generate $200M+ in annual revenue. The trading app accounts for 25–35% of Kalshi’s daily turnover and splits football transaction fees evenly with the exchange.
NFL Pricing Still Developing
Kalshi’s NFL contract pricing, however, remains a work in progress. According to Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, Kalshi’s NFL money lines and totals were less competitive than DraftKings and FanDuel on Sept. 26 once fees were included.
While spreads are narrowing, prediction markets must improve liquidity to match sportsbook pricing. Bender believes adoption will drive tighter spreads as the season progresses, potentially making football one of Kalshi’s most liquid markets outside major global events.
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