The NFL heads into Week 4 with no shortage of drama for bettors. From Micah Parsons’ primetime return to Dallas, to the Bills laying the biggest spread of the season, to a rookie quarterback debut in New York, sportsbooks are buzzing.
Bills Lay Monster Spread vs. Saints (-15.5)
Buffalo enters Week 4 as a two-touchdown favorite against New Orleans, with the line moving from –14.5 to –15.5. Despite the size, bettors aren’t shying away.
“The Bills have the biggest spread of the NFL season thus far, but bettors haven’t been afraid to lay two touchdowns,” said Adrian Horton, Senior Director of Sports Trading at ESPN BET.
The Lions (-10.5 vs. Browns) have also drawn heavy action, ranking among the most bet spreads of the week.
Parsons’ Return to Jerry World
Micah Parsons heads back to Dallas, this time in Green Bay colors. The Packers-Cowboys matchup is the most-bet game of the week by total handle.
- Green Bay bettors are all-in: 80% of spread tickets and 90% of handle are backing the Packers –6.5.
- Player prop spotlight: Parsons to record a sack ranks as the third most-bet prop at ESPN BET.
At BetMGM, prop action has focused on Omarion Hampton (Over 65.5 rushing yards), Jaylen Warren (Over 21.5 receiving yards), and Daniel Jones (Over 215.5 passing yards).
Super Bowl Contenders in Trouble?
The Chiefs (1-2) host the Ravens (also 1-2) in a pivotal matchup that could drop one preseason favorite to a shaky 1-3 start.
Industry veteran Phill Gray suggests bettors stay away:
“Historically Lamar Jackson hasn’t done well against Kansas City (1-5). Mahomes’ offense looks out of sync, but the Chiefs as small home dogs could tempt the public. This feels like a trap game.”
Most bet underdogs at BetMGM include the Steelers (+120), Chiefs (+125), Colts (+155), Bucs (+155), and longshot Saints (+1000).
Undefeated Teams Put to the Test
Six teams remain unbeaten heading into Week 4: Eagles, Bucs, Bills, Chargers, Colts, and 49ers.
- Chargers (-6.5 vs. Giants, Jaxson Dart’s debut): Drawing 91% of handle and 93% of bets at DraftKings.
- Eagles (-192 vs. Bucs): Getting two-thirds of betting handle.
- 49ers (-166 vs. Jaguars): Nearly even split on handle despite heavy ticket support.
- Colts (+160 vs. Rams): Public fading Indy despite 3-0 start.
Rookie QB Jaxson Dart makes his first NFL start for the Giants against the Chargers, adding intrigue to an already popular betting spot.
Trends to Watch
- Double-digit favorites have covered 57.5% of the time over the past five years.
- Bills’ number may drift closer to kickoff, but expect Buffalo to anchor parlays and teasers.
- Giants’ moneyline (+250 or better) could see sharp action with Dart hype fueling speculation.
“The Bills straight up will certainly be a major part of combos and teasers. Books will need some sort of New Orleans miracle to keep it close,” Gray said.
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